Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days

As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025…

East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:

A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 10 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.