On March 13, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. The authorities need more time to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.

Antigua and Barbuda’s post-pandemic economic expansion is continuing. Real output is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with growth estimated at 4.3 percent, driven by strong tourism and one-off events (including the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States and the T20 Cricket World Cup). Inflation was elevated in 2024, reflecting contributions from specific items, notably communication, as well as increases in indirect taxes.

The recovery in nominal GDP, along with improved fiscal balances, brought down the public debt from around 100 percent of GDP in 2020 to 67 percent in 2024. However, gross financing needs are projected to remain around 10 percent of GDP in the medium term. Substantial domestic and external arrears, albeit with domestic arrears uncertain in size, have limited financing options. The fiscal primary balance improved to 4.6 percent in 2024, aided by indirect tax increases, a broader economic recovery, and one-off factors (e.g., nearly 2 percent of GDP from an asset forfeiture and unusually low capital spending). The 2025 Budget envisages stronger tax revenues and higher capital spending.

According to Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) preliminary estimates, the current account deficit narrowed to 7 percent of GDP in 2024, reflecting both a higher service trade balance—mainly tourism receipts—and a smaller goods deficit due to a contraction in imports. FDI inflows were resilient to tightening global financial conditions and continued to support ongoing hotel construction. Credit growth is recovering, with nonperforming loans contained.