ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

3:00 PM ECT FRIDAY JUN 28 2024

…Tropical Disturbance AL95 is tracking toward the Windward Islands…

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services continues to actively follow the progress of Tropical Disturbance al95, which is still very far away but is likely to pass south of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands as a tropical cyclone around monday.

There is a near certainty that AL95 will develop into a tropical cyclone, within the next 12 hours. There is also growing confidence that the system will track a relatively safe distance south of the Northeast Caribbean, through the Windward Islands around Monday. Hence, at this early stage, the reasonable worst-case scenario suggests that AL95 poses little threat to the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. Nevertheless, it is important to note that we are not in the clear. To ensure your safety, have your hurricane season plan prepared. In addition, stay actively vigilant and monitor the progress of this disturbance closely.

At 2 pm ect or 1800 utc, tropical disturbance al95 was located about 1550 miles east-southeast of the leeward islands moving west at 18 mph.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and AL95 is expected to become tropical storm beryl within 24 hours.

Based on the forecast model tracks, the system could be at the nearest point to the area monday. At this time, it will likely be a hurricane.

Most of the hazardous winds will more likely than not stay clear of Antigua and the rest of the area.

Please note that no alerts, watches or warnings are currently in effect for the area; however, an alert may be required out of an abundance of caution.

Residents should continue to closely monitor tropical disturbance AL95 and ensure that they have their hurricane season plans prepared.

An update will be given around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin