The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins on Monday, but forecasters say several atmospheric and oceanic factors could keep tropical activity below normal in the months ahead.

Large plumes of Saharan dust are currently sweeping across the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The dust is expected to spread into parts of the southeastern United States and the Southern Plains in the coming days.

While the dust can create hazy skies and vivid sunrises and sunsets, it also plays an important role in suppressing tropical development. According to forecasters, the hot, dry air associated with Saharan dust is moving through the Main Development Region (MDR), a key area where many Atlantic storms form. The dry air creates a more stable atmosphere, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize.

Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic are also cooler than they were during recent hurricane seasons, which featured record-breaking ocean warmth. The cooler waters are contributing to less favorable conditions for storm formation.

At the same time, meteorologists are monitoring the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Forecasts indicate El Niño could strengthen as the hurricane season progresses toward its peak months.

El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. Strong wind shear can disrupt developing tropical systems and prevent them from strengthening into tropical storms or hurricanes.

As a result of these combined factors, major forecasting agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University, are predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026.

In recent years, the first named storm of the Atlantic season has often formed during June, with the first hurricane usually developing by August. However, forecasters say conditions this year may delay significant tropical development during the early part of the season.