Antigua and Barbuda is being urged to prepare for hotter and drier months ahead as climate signals point to the development of El Niño, a pattern known to significantly reduce rainfall across the Caribbean.

In an analysis published on April 26, meteorologist Dale C. S. Destin said forecasts show a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures between May and September, increasing the risk of drought and pressure on water resources.

El Niño, driven by warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific, typically suppresses rainfall in the region while raising temperatures. For Antigua and Barbuda, this can mean reduced wet-season rains, higher evaporation rates, and strain on already limited freshwater supplies.

The country remains particularly vulnerable, with more than 90% of its water produced through desalination. While this has improved resilience, Destin warned that prolonged dry conditions could still pose serious challenges if not carefully managed.

Past El Niño years—including 1983, 1997, and 2015—brought severe drought, water shortages, and major disruptions, underscoring the need for early preparation.

Officials and residents are being encouraged to monitor conditions closely and adopt water conservation measures as the region heads into what could be another difficult dry period.