The Caribbean faces a reduced risk of major hurricanes in 2026, but experts are warning residents not to let their guard down ahead of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

A seasonal outlook from researchers at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Philip J. Klotzbach, projects a 35% chance of at least one major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — tracking through the Caribbean this year. That figure is below the long-term average of 47%, suggesting a quieter-than-normal season for the region.

The forecast also points to overall below-average storm activity across the Atlantic basin, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes expected for the season, which officially begins on June 1.

Despite the lower projections, forecasters are cautioning that the outlook does not eliminate the threat to vulnerable island states such as Antigua and Barbuda.

“As with all hurricane seasons, it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the report notes, urging coastal residents to remain vigilant and prepared.

The anticipated dip in activity is largely linked to the expected development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically increases wind shear and limits storm formation in the Atlantic.

However, uncertainty remains around how strong the El Niño pattern will become during the peak of the season between August and October — a factor that could influence storm activity.

For countries across the Caribbean, the message remains unchanged: preparation is critical.

Even in quieter seasons, a single storm can cause widespread damage, particularly in small island developing states where infrastructure and communities remain highly exposed to extreme weather.

Authorities across the region are expected to continue readiness efforts in the coming weeks, as the countdown to the 2026 hurricane season begins.