A dry start to 2026 is raising concerns about growing water stress across Antigua, as meteorologists warn that rainfall is unlikely to recover significantly in the months ahead.

According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service’s latest Monthly Climate Outlook, below-to-near normal rainfall is expected through February and into early spring, increasing the risk of reduced reservoir recharge and pressure on water supplies.

Forecasters said February carries a 75% likelihood of below-to-near normal rainfall, following a December in which Antigua recorded well below-normal rainfall and experienced prolonged dry spells. Barbuda, meanwhile, saw just 14.1 millimetres of rain in December, including a 21-day dry spell, highlighting the broader regional dryness entering the new year.

While daytime temperatures are forecast to remain near normal, meteorologists noted that above-normal night-time temperatures are likely, a factor that can worsen water stress by increasing evaporation rates and reducing soil moisture retention. Warmer nights also limit the recovery of surface and underground water sources, even in the absence of extreme daytime heat.

The outlook indicates that short-term drought conditions are likely to develop by the end of February, with moderate or worse dry conditions expected to evolve by April if rainfall deficits persist. Longer-term indicators suggest drought concerns could extend into May, particularly if early wet-season rains fall short of expectations.

Meteorologists cautioned that rainfall during the May-to-July period, which typically marks the start of seasonal recovery, is also likely to be below to near normal, raising concerns about delayed replenishment of reservoirs and groundwater supplies.

The Meteorological Service said the forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change but emphasized the importance of early monitoring and planning. Officials encouraged close attention to water management, agricultural conditions and dry-season impacts as Antigua moves deeper into 2026.