Antigua and Barbuda is facing an elevated risk of drought over the coming months, with meteorologists warning that dry conditions are expected to intensify through the first half of the year.

According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service’s latest Monthly Climate Outlook, a Drought Warning is anticipated across the island by the end of February 2026, driven by below-normal rainfall linked to ongoing La Niña conditions.

The outlook indicates a 75% chance of below-to-near normal rainfall in February, with similar conditions expected through the February-to-April period. Forecasters say this increases the likelihood of moderate or worse short-term drought, particularly if dry spells persist.

December 2025 already showed signs of stress, with Antigua recording well below-normal rainfall and Barbuda experiencing extremely dry conditions, including a 21-day dry spell, the report said. These conditions have contributed to declining soil moisture and reduced water availability.

Meteorologists also warned that drought risks extend beyond the short term. Based on six-month rainfall indicators, moderate or worse drought conditions are expected to develop by the end of April, while longer-term indicators suggest a Drought Warning could persist into May, particularly across central and southern parts of Antigua.

While daytime temperatures are expected to remain near normal, above-normal nighttime temperatures are forecast, which can worsen drought impacts by increasing evaporation rates and reducing soil moisture retention, the report noted.

The Meteorological Service said rainfall totals during the early wet season, from May to July, are also likely to be below to near normal, raising concerns about delayed recovery of water resources.

Forecasters emphasized that the outlook is probabilistic and subject to change, but urged close monitoring of water supplies, agricultural activity, and fire risk as dry conditions continue.