268Weather has lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, saying below-normal activity is now the most likely outcome as a strong El Niño continues to suppress tropical cyclone development.

In its final seasonal update, published Tuesday, meteorologist Dale C.S. Destin said the latest forecast calls for 10 named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, of 74.

The figures represent another reduction from the July forecast of 12 named storms, four hurricanes, two major hurricanes and an ACE of 99. The latest outlook incorporates data through Aug. 30.

268Weather puts the probability of a below-normal season at 49%, compared with a 33% chance of near-normal activity and an 18% chance of an above-normal season.

There is also a 17% chance of what the forecaster describes as a “super-hypoactive” season, with ACE below 39.

The primary factor behind the quieter outlook is a very strong and strengthening El Niño, which 268Weather said is near record strength for this time of year. El Niño typically reduces Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing vertical wind shear and creating less favorable conditions for storm development.

Saharan dust could further suppress activity, although its impact remains a source of uncertainty.

For the peak period from August through October, 268Weather is forecasting eight named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes, with an ACE of 67.

Despite the reduced forecast, residents across the Caribbean and wider Atlantic are being urged to remain prepared.

“A below-normal season does not mean an absence of hurricanes or impacts,” 268Weather said, noting that a single tropical cyclone can cause significant damage.

The update is 268Weather’s final forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Its first outlook for the 2027 season is expected around mid-April.

This article was originally published by Antigua News Room. Read the original article here: 268Weather Lowers 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, Below-Normal Season Now Most Likely.