The World Meteorological Organization is warning that El Niño is strengthening rapidly and is expected to become a very strong event before the end of 2026, increasing the risk of extreme weather around the world.
In an update released Thursday, the WMO said forecasts show a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027, an unusually high level of certainty for its seasonal outlooks.
The climate phenomenon is being fuelled by exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific. WMO forecasts indicate it will continue strengthening over the coming months and could peak around November or December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event could become exceptionally strong, warning that if the current trajectory continues, it may exceed anything recorded since the organisation’s monitoring began.
A very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the likelihood of drought, flooding and extreme heat in different parts of the world.
The development also has implications for the Caribbean, although the WMO cautioned that the strength of El Niño does not automatically determine the severity of its effects in individual countries. Conditions in the Atlantic Ocean and other climate factors can strengthen, weaken or alter the typical impacts.
For September through November, forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most land areas worldwide. The tropical Atlantic is also expected to remain warmer than normal.
WMO is urging governments and meteorological agencies to closely monitor regional and national forecasts and strengthen preparedness for possible climate-related hazards.
The organisation stressed that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, although its effects occur against the backdrop of a warming climate.
This article was originally published by Antigua News Room. Read the original article here: Very Strong El Niño Could Bring Extreme Weather Into 2027.